{"id":965732,"date":"2023-04-07T07:43:31","date_gmt":"2023-04-06T23:43:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.seehua.com\/?p=965732"},"modified":"2023-04-07T07:43:40","modified_gmt":"2023-04-06T23:43:40","slug":"%e6%9e%97%e5%be%b7%e5%ae%9c%ef%bc%9a%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%96%84%e7%94%a8%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e7%bb%84%e7%bb%87%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/test.seehua.com\/?p=965732","title":{"rendered":"\u6797\u5fb7\u5b9c\uff1a\u5982\u4f55\u5584\u7528\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u62a5\u544a\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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\u81c3\u80bf\u516c\u52a1\u5458\u4f53\u5236<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8ba9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u548c\u5f15\u5bfc\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u5c06\u5927\u5b66\u5efa\u8bbe\u89c6\u4e3a\u80fd\u529b\u5efa\u8bbe\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u975e\u6b63\u89c4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6280\u804c\u6559\u80b2\u57f9\u8bad\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u82b1\u8d39\u7684\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u4ee4\u5409\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u57f9\u517b\u5927\u91cf\u4e14\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u5931\u4e1a\u5927\u4e13\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u5e0c\u671b\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5728\u5176\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5207\u5b9e\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u7ea0\u6b63\u9a6c\u6765\u897f\u4e9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u9700\u8981\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6d89\u53ca\u8d22\u653f\u3001\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5b89\u5168\u7f51\u3001\u7ade\u4e89\u529b\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6539\u9769\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u663e\u7136\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u5927\u80c6\u7684\u6539\u9769\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u56fd\u5bb6\u9677\u5165\u5982\u65af\u91cc\u5170\u5361\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5904\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6797\u5fb7\u5b9c\u300a\u5982\u4f55\u5584\u7528\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u62a5\u544a\uff1f\u300b\u539f\u6587\uff1aHow Useful Is The IMF Report Card?  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently the IMF released a report which provided some conclusions on Malaysia\u2019s economic and financial health going forward. These conclusions can be read as providing guidance to the Unity government for its immediate and medium term policy making and implementation <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2027The Malaysian economy is expected to grow 4.5 percent, more modestly than 2022. This will be driven by external factors.
\u2027The risks to growth will also come from external factors, such as a worldwide slowdown in economic activity. This could be spurred by a tightening of monetary policy by major central banks. 
\u2027Growth is uneven, with agriculture, construction, and mining, lagging behind pre-pandemic levels. 
\u2027Inflation expectations will remain around 3.3 percent during 2023. Continued subsidies should keep inflationary pressures in check. 
\u2027Malaysia needs to focus on debt reduction through major fiscal consolidation, and the development of a sustainable medium to long-term revenue reform.
\u2027Income redistribution to lower income families through transfers to alleviate poverty and bolster domestic consumer confidence is necessary
\u2027Monetary policy requires tightening to support the Ringgit and keep inflation grounded. Interest rate adjustments must take into account the wellbeing of households and corporations, in order to maintain growth, and prevent any stalling of the economy. 
\u2027RM 12 and budget 2023 should be rolled out to enhance broad-based productivity drivers, inclusive growth, addressing  climate change, promoting the digital economy, enhancing good governance, and anti-corruption measures.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the surface, the IMF appears to have given the \u2018thumbs-up\u2019 to RM 12 and budget 2023.  But in fact we can see that the report was polite by under-emphasising the risks and dangers that the nation\u2019s economy faces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risks And Dangers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The postulated IMF growth rate for the current year of 4.5 percent is clearly an optimistic estimate. It does not appear to take account of global  developments which will impact Malaysia given the open nature of the economy. The recent bank failures, continuing war in Ukraine and a reduction in the growth rate in China – Malaysia\u2019s largest trading partner – auger strong headwinds. The latter explains PM Anwar\u2019s visit to China. Our economic future is increasingly hitched with that of China, for better or worse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the IMF report appears to endorse reforms in various areas, the Mission stayed clear of  making specific recommendations concerning what is needed to jump start the economy.  Thus the text relies on the implementation of policies and strategies contained in RM 12 and budget 2023.  
   
Going back to the 12th Malaysia Plan, the document outlined 14 game changing approaches to transform Malaysia, where the implementation will be overseen by transformational leadership, promising the whole nation will be mobilized to achieve RM12 objectives \u2013 a prosperous and high income, a sustainable low carbon economy, that is globally competitive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the reality of the plan was far from what was espoused. Very little focus was given to rehabilitating the devastation of the economy from the MCOs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 12th plan selected very specific industry winners, such as the aerospace industry, a policy that led to dismal failures in multi-media and biotechnology. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reality is that the 12th Malaysia Plan took the template from past five year plans. The 12th Malaysian Plan not only reinforced existing GLCs. It also planned to create more to oversee sections of the economy. This is the wrong transformation. What is required is to put a focus on private sector enterprises, especially the SMEs so that they have equality of opportunity, equal access to resources and a level playing field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transformation leadership definitely cannot occur through a bloated civil service. It has already brought wastage, inefficiencies and leakages as well as a huge and still growing emoluments and pension bill that is the largest single item of government operating expenditure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is still no emphasis to bring about efficiency, merit and inclusiveness into the institution. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in 1995 Malaysia and Korea were equal in productivity indices. However, in 2021, Malaysia is nearly USD 30 k behind Korea. There can be no one approach to improving Malaysia\u2019s productivity. Digitization, the circular economy, industry 4.0, all have their place. This is especially the case in the MSME sector, which employs 40 percent of Malaysia\u2019s workforce, where most enterprises suffer with liquidity issues and couldn\u2019t even dream of adopting ICT solutions and Industry 4.0. Innovative solutions to improve liquidity are required before one can look at improving productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes economists forget about the diversity of Malaysia\u2019s economy. Malaysia\u2019s informal sector is large. Thus, the nation must be seen as having a two-tier economy. There has been too little focus upon the informal sector. It has been forgotten about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economics not politics should determine and influence the drivers we use.  But this has not been the case. For instance, Malaysia embarked upon university building as the prime means of capacity building, where the informal sector required TVET.  The result: several trillion ringgit invested and a huge and growing output of unemployable graduates.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One can only hope that the IMP will present tangible plans to support real reforms to correct what is wrong with the Malaysian economy in the fuller report that it is preparing. Above all, the Government  will need to implement  a whole range of reforms dealing with  fiscal programs, labor market, safety net, competitiveness etc. There is a clear urgency for the adoption of bold reform measures lest the country slide into a situation similar as the one engulfing Sri Lanka and other failed economies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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