{"id":52904,"date":"2015-05-09T22:18:43","date_gmt":"2015-05-09T14:18:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.news.seehua.com\/?p=52904"},"modified":"2015-05-09T22:18:43","modified_gmt":"2015-05-09T14:18:43","slug":"%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%91%e6%88%98%e4%b8%8e%e5%87%ba%e8%b7%af%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e4%bb%8e%e3%80%8a%e8%b4%a5%e9%80%80%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e3%80%8b%e4%b8%80%e4%b9%a6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/test.seehua.com\/?p=52904","title":{"rendered":"\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u6311\u6218\u4e0e\u51fa\u8def\u2500\u2500\u4ece\u300a\u8d25\u9000\u4e2d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u8c08\u8d77"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5b59\u548c\u58f0<\/p>\n<div class=\"columns large-7 medium-6 small-12\">\n<div class=\"article\">\n<p>\u81ea\u4ece1989\u82cf\u8054\u4e0e\u4e1c\u6b27\u53d8\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u9009\u4e3e\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u53ef\u8c13\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e00\u4e16\u3002\u9009\u4e3e\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\u751a\u81f3\u6210\u4e86\u4e0d\u53ef\u6279\u5224\u7684\u5723\u725b\uff0c\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u6559\u6761\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u6559\u3002\u53ea\u662f\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74 \u6765\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u897f\u5f0f\u9009\u4e3e\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u5b66\u8005\u65e5\u591a\uff0c\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u8bf8\u5982\u300a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u9634\u6697\u9762\uff1a\u89e3\u91ca\u65cf\u88d4\u6e05\u6d17\u300b\u7c7b\u7684\u4e66\uff08The Dark Side of Democracy By Michael Mann\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u5411\u6a19\u699c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u6742\u8a8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u591a\u7bc7\u6279\u5224\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u4eba\u5458Joshua Kurlantzick\u57282013\uff0c\u8fd8\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u300a\u8d25\u9000\u4e2d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u300b\uff08Democracy in Retreat\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\uff0c\u5168\u9762\u68c0\u8a0e\u8fd920\u5e74\u6765\u9009\u4e3e\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u6b77\u7a0b\u3002\u5176\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e0d\u4f46\u6ca1\u51fa\u73b0\u7b2c\u56db\u6ce2\uff08Fourth Wave\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u51fa\u73b0\u8d25\u9000\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6613\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5176\u8d25\u9000\u4e26\u975e\u5b64\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4f7f\u4eba\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u68c0\u8a0e\u5230\u5e95\u54ea\u513f\u51fa\u4e86\u9519\u3002\u8bf4\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0e\u4e66\u8fd8\u771f\u4e0d\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e94\u8be5\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6279\u5224\u897f\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8005\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u53cd\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6700\u4e0d\u574f\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u80fd\u8fd0\u4f5c\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002Kurlantzick\u4e5f\u662f\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52a8\u673a\u6765\u68c0\u9a8c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u5065\u5168\u7684\u518d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6309\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd920\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5728\u4e1c\u6b27\u4e0e\u8bb8\u591a\u4e9a\u975e\u62c9\u4e0e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u51fa\u73b0\u8d25\u9000\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u65b0\u95fb\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u6307\u6570\u7b49\u6bcf\u51b5\u6108\u4e0b\uff0c\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u9996\u5148\u662f\u4e2d\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u7684 \u80cc\u53db\uff08Revolt\uff09\u3002\u6309\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5178\u578b\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u4e00\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u666e\u53ca\u3001\u6587\u5316\u6c34\u5e73\u63d0\u9ad8\u3001\u6743\u5229\u610f\u8bc6\u5f3a\u5316\u7b49\u7efc\u5408\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u548c\u5e73\u6f14\u53d8 \uff08Peaceful Evolution\uff09\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4e2d\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u7684\u58ee\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6b27\u76df\u5411\u4e1c\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u53f0\u6e7e\u4e0e\u5357\u97e9\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c11\u4e3b\u9009\u4e3e\u52a0\u5267\u65cf\u9645\u7d27\u5f20<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u53ea\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u56fd\u60c5\u4e0e\u6c11\u60c5\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u4eba\u6027\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u4f7f\u4e2d\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u53d8\u5f97\u96be\u4ee5\u6349\u6478\u6216\u662f\u5177\u6709\u591a\u9762\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u89c6\u7a33 \u5b9a\u591a\u8fc7\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5bb3\u6015\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4f1a\u635f\u53ca\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65e2\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u6216\u56e0\u6c11\u9009\u4e13\u5236\u8005\uff08Elected Autocrats\uff09\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u5931\u671b\u3002\u5728\u6cf0\u56fd\uff0c\u6c11\u7cb9\uff08\u6c11\u773e\uff09\u4e3b\u4e49\uff08Populism\uff09\uff0c\u66f4\u5bfc\u81f430%\u7684\u4e2d\u7522\u5bf970%\u7684\u975e\u4e2d\u7522\u7684\u5bf9\u6297\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u7ec8\u800c\u4f7f\u519b\u4eba \u540d\u6b63\u8a00\u987a\u5730\u51fa\u6765\u6536\u62fe\u6b8b\u5c40\u3002\u5728\u57c3\u53ca\uff0c\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff08Islamist\uff09\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u4f7f\u4e0d\u5c11\u4e2d\u7522\u5be7\u613f\u9009\u62e9\u519b\u653f\u3002\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u9009\u4e3e\u4e5f\u5267\u5316\u4e86\u65cf\u9645\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u5167 \u6218\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f38\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u8d44\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u4fbf\u6ca1\u6709\u6c11\u4e3b\u8fd9\u4e00\u547d\u9898\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u653e\u4e4b\u56db\u6d77\u7686\u51c6\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u8d44\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u4e2d\u7522\u9636\u7ea7\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u7522\u672a\u5fc5\u53ef\u9760\u5916\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u524a\u51cf\u8d2a\u6c61\u8150\u8d25\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u8bb8 \u591a\u4eba\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7522\u751f\u7591\u95ee\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u9a71\u90aa\u9664\u6076\u7684\u4e07\u7075\u4e39\u3002\u5b9e\u5219\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u662f\u8150\u8d25\u7684\u6839\u6e90\uff1b\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u8fde\u8001\u724c\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u514d\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728 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\u8bba\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u5931\u5e8f\u8bba\u3001\u6cbb\u7406\u5371\u673a\u7b49\uff0c\u4e5f\u5df2\u6210\u4e86\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u8bfe\u9898\uff0c\u8857\u5934\u653f\u6cbb\u4e5f\u65e5\u8d8b\u9891\u7e41\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0d\u826f\u793a\u8303\uff0c\u96be\u514d\u4f1a\u635f\u53ca\u897f\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u611f\u53ec\u529b\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5df2\u8d28\u7591\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6709 \u771f\u7ecf\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u793e\u4f1a\u5b66\u79d1\u7406\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u672c\u571f\u5316\u3001\u56fd\u60c5\u5316\u3001\u6c11\u60c5\u5316\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5b9e\u4e8b\u6c42\u662f\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u5f53\u524d200\u591a\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u5730\u533a\u4e2d\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6709\u7ea6120\u4e2a\u6709\u9009\u4e3e\u578b\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08Electoral Democracy\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u771f\u7684\u80fd\u7b26\u5408\u5b8c\u6574\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08Full Democracy\uff09\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ea\u6709\u7ea630\u4e2a\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u591a\u4e3a\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08Flawed Democracy\uff09\u6216\u662f\u6df7\u5408\u653f\u6743\uff08Hybrid Regime\uff09\uff0c\u4f59\u8005\u4e3a\u5a01\u6743\u4f53\u5236\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u632f\u5174\u897f\u5f0f\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u542f\u52a8\u518d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u662f\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u3002Kurlantzick\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4ece\u8f93\u51fa\u6c11\u4e3b\uff08\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u8f93 \u51fa\u52a8\u4e71\uff0c\u5982\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u4e71\u8c61\uff09\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u82e5\u8981\u641e\u51fa\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u7406\u5e94\u5b9e\u4e8b\u6c42\u662f\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u518d\u51fa\u53d1\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u51e0\u9879\u5fc5\u987b\u591a\u6ce8\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c11\u4e3b\u975e\u5b8c\u7f8e\u88fd\u5ea6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e3a\u7ba1\u7406\u671f\u671b\uff08Managing Expectations\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u8981\u8ba9\u4eba\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u9009\u4e3e\u6c11\u4e3b\u53ea\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5b83\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u662f\u53bb\u9664\u767e\u75c5\u7684\u901f\u65b9\u3002\u82e5\u6c11\u773e\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e00\u5230\uff0c\u4e07\u75c5\u836f\u5230\u75c5\u9664\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765 \u5e7b\u706d\uff0c\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5065\u5168\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u3002\u6c11\u4e3b\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u6700\u4e0d\u574f\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5b8c\u7f8e\u65e0\u7f3a\u7684\u3002\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u4e5f\u5b9c\u770b\u5230\u8d0f\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u4e0d\u7b49\u4e8e\u826f\u597d\u6cbb\u7406\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u82e5\u4e0d\u628a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7b49\u540c\u4e8e\u4ed9\u4e39 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