{"id":240433,"date":"2017-01-08T18:45:05","date_gmt":"2017-01-08T10:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/news.seehua.com\/?p=240433"},"modified":"2017-01-08T18:45:05","modified_gmt":"2017-01-08T10:45:05","slug":"%e5%bd%93%e5%89%8d%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%bd%a2%e5%8a%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/test.seehua.com\/?p=240433","title":{"rendered":"\u5f53\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5b59\u548c\u58f0<\/p>\n

\n

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\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b66\u754c\u8fd1\u5e74\u6d41\u884c\u4e00\u79cd\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u79cd\u957f\u671f\u505c\u6eef\uff08Secular Stagnation\uff09\u7684\u6b32\u632f\u4e4f\u529b\u7684\u72b6\u614b\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u51fa\u53f0\u653f\u7b56\u6027\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u632f\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u7387\u4e5f\u4f9d\u7136\u5904\u5728\u4f4e\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e5f\u4f9d\u7136\u5904\u5728\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e5f\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8d27\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u589e\u51cf\u8d27\u5e63\u53d1\u884c\u91cf\u4e0e\u5347\u964d\u5229\u7387\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\u4e5f\u5df2\u7528\u8001\uff0c\u96be\u518d\u53d1\u6325\u79ef\u6781\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u53ef\u82e5\u8981\u7528\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5373\u589e\u51cf\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u6216\u589e\u51cf\u7a0e\u7387\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u53c8\u5df2\u5904\u4e8e\u9ad8\u4f4d\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u9ad8\u5371\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u8fd8\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u53c8\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4e00\u573a\u7531\u503a\u52a1\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u524d\u666f\u582a\u5fe7<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5c31\u503a\u52a1\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u57282014\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u503a\u52a1\u6c34\u5e73\uff08\u516c\u5171\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0e\u5bb6\u5ead\u52a0\u603b\u8d77\u6765\uff09\u5df2\u9ad8\u8fbe199\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff08887\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u56fd\u5167\u751f\u7522\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u7684286%\uff0c\u6bd42007\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u8d44\u6b21\u8d37\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u7684142\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff08633\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\u8fd8\u591a\u51fa57\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff08254\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u5176\u5360GDP\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u4e5f\u540c\u6837\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u636e\u6b64\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5df2\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u505c\u6eef\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u9ad8\u503a\u52a1\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5404\u56fd\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u80fd\u3002\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0e\u5927\u9a6c\uff0c\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u9ad8\u503a\u52a1\u5236\u7ea6\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u80fd\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6df1\u5c42\u5730\u770b\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8fd8\u9762\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u5931\u4e1a\u4e0e\u9ad8\u9f84\u5c11\u5b50\u5316\u7684\u96be\u9898\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u798f\u5229\u56fd\u5371\u673a\u7684\u8bba\u6218\u3002\u6709\u8bba\u8005\u751a\u81f3\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u73b0\u884c\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u4fdd\u969c\u5236\u662f\u4e2a\u5e9e\u6c0f\u9a97\u5c40\uff08Ponzi Scheme\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u9000\u4f11\u4eba\u58eb\u65e5\u591a\uff0c\u800c\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u53e3\u65e5\u5c11\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u82e5\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u804c\u4eba\u5458\u5f97\u517b2\u30013\u4e2a\u9000\u4f11\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u662f\u96be\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u641e\u5f00\u653e\u79fb\u6c11\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6548\u679c\u4e5f\u6709\u9650\u3002\u636e\u6b64\u800c\u8bba\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u524d\u666f\u582a\u865e\uff0c\u60f3\u79fb\u6c11\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u8005\uff0c\u6050\u4e5f\u5f97\u4e09\u601d\u800c\u540e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ece\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u76f8\u4e92\u4f9d\u5b58\u7684\u4e92\u4f9d\u8bba\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u7684\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u4f1a\u5236\u7ea6\u65b0\u5174\u56fd\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6f5c\u80fd\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7684\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u8fd8\u662f\u6700\u5177\u8d2d\u4e70\u529b\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u82e5\u524a\u51cf\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u4fbf\u53d7\u5230\u9650\u5236\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5c11\u89c1\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u8fd9\u73b0\u8c61\u79f0\u4e3a\u9006\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5728\u9006\u8f6c\uff01<\/p>\n

\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u8d8b\u540c\u8bba<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u82e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b0\u4efb\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u771f\u7684\u5927\u641e\u7f8e\u56fd\u81f3\u4e0a\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c31\u66f4\u4e0d\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u5bf9\u65b0\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5982\u53f0\u97e9\u65b0\u9a6c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u4f1a\u5927\u53d7\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5982\u57282014\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d27\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u7ea619\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0884\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7f8e\u56fd\u4fbf\u8fdb\u53e3\u4e862.4\u5146\uff0810\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5219\u8fdb\u53e3\u4e861.9\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff088.5\u5146\u4ee4\u5409\uff09\u3002\u8fd92\u4e2a\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u82e5\u6253\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u81ea\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51b2\u51fb\u5230\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u754c\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u8d8b\u540c\u8bba\uff08Convergence\uff09\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u5f00\u653e\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u4e0e\u843d\u540e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u6536\u5165\u5dee\u8ddd\u5e94\u4f1a\u65e5\u8d8b\u62c9\u8fd1\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u82e5\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u53ca\u8d44\u672c\u82e5\u80fd\u81ea\u7531\u6d41\u52a8\uff0c\u6309\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f18\u52bf\u8bba\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5df2\u4e0d\u5177\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u7522\u4e1a\u4f1a\u6d41\u5165\u8f83\u843d\u540e\u56fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u843d\u540e\u56fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5c31\u4e1a\u673a\u4f1a\u4e0e\u8d5a\u53d6\u5916\u532f\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u50a8\u84c4\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u63d0\u9ad8\u843d\u540e\u56fd\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0e\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u7269\u54c1\u5982\u571f\u5730\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u9012\u5347\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u62c9\u8fd1\u56fd\u4e0e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u7406\u8bba\u5f52\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u56fd\u4e0e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4eba\u5747\u6536\u5165\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u53ea\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u6216\u5730\u533a\u5982\u53f0\u97e9\u65b0\u6e2f\uff0c\u591a\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u5219\u65e7\u614b\u4f9d\u7136\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u67d0\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u540e\uff0c\u4fbf\u9047\u5230\u963b\u529b\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u66f4\u4e0a\u4e00\u5c42\u697c\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u6027\u8d8b\u540c\u8bba\uff08Conditional Convergence\uff09\uff1b\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e9b\u914d\u5957\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u65b9\u53ef\u80fd\u62c9\u8fd1\u8d2b\u5bcc\u56fd\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5982\u6709\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7522\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5929\u65f6\u3001\u5730\u5229\u3001\u4eba\u548c\u7b49\u3002\u82e5\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u641e\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u4f1a\u9047\u963b\uff0c\u5f97\u53e6\u8c0b\u51fa\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

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